Parameter estimation for the forest fire propagation model

Abstract

This paper first gives a brief overview of the Lagrangian forest fire propagation model [1], which we apply to grassfield areas. Then, our aim is to estimate the optimal model parameters. To achieve this goal we use data assimilation of the measured data. From the data we are able to estimate normal velocity of fire front (rate of spread), dominant wind direction and selected model parameters. In the data assimilation process we use the Hausdorff distance as well as the Mean Hausdorf distance as a criterion. Moreover we predict the fire propagation in small time intervals.